Tips to Survive 2025: BUSINESS, WORKERS & THE ECONOMY

Managing for inflation, competition, disruptions, shortages, and risks

“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.” — Benjamin Franklin, businessman

I’ve run four startups. During the Trump administraton, I felt terrifyingly relieved that I sold our mobile robot manufacturing company prior to his taking office. His unpredictable tariffs would have wrecked our profitability.

So I empathize with manufacturers and retailers facing sleepless nights from upcoming tariff wars and supply disruption. Climate emergencies will require more access to capital, as insurance coverage shrinks. Workforce issues may plague service companies most, but others, as well.

Meanwhile, oil and other extractive industries are celebrating. The new administration promises them carte blanche. Likewise with banking, finance, and crypto. Small business could see mixed results from deregulation, though.

TARIFFS, CLIMATE, SUPPLY CHAINS, ENERGY & WATER

US tariffs will raise consumer prices, lowering demand. They will complicate manufacturers’ and importers’ pricing. Tariff wars could affect supply chains. Reciprocal tariffs will likely harm export commodities, such as wheat.

Many companies have already contracted tariff accounting and legal experts. Here are some techniques they recommend for avoidance and mitigation.

Climate uncertainty exacerbates risk further. Congress is unlikely to raise FEMA funding enough to respond. Storms may interfere with supply chains and retail sales. Companies should carefully monitor their insurance coverage. Expect looser regulations to bring yet more exclusions.

Businesses should stock mission-critical components. Component quality could be an issue, as well as tariffs and supply disruption. For example, the world-class computer chips made by TSMC in Taiwan require the knowledge, intense scrutiny, and culture of singlemindedness of their highly specialized workforce. The new TSMC chip factory in Phoenix may be forced by the Trump administration to hire American workers with a more relaxed attitude toward perfection.

Competition for water and energy will increase. Both AI companies and crypto miners are lobbying to monopolize large shares of available energy. Watch for opportunities to ensure that your business and community retains priority to adequate supplies of both. And plan for the possibility of disruptions from weather emergencies.

FINANCE POSSIBILITIES

Banks await the Trump administration enthusiastically. Lower reserve requirements and looser oversight will provide them with more funds to loan. Expect higher fees. Both banks and some businesses look forward to switching to blockchain contracts for near instant transactions. And banks expect the restriction on private investment in unregulated companies to be removed. Currently, only qualified, wealthy investors may participate.

If this happens, more private companies may want to consider seeking outside investment. Large numbers of small investors could provide new capital. “Meme” stocks have shown the power of these social-media influenced groups.

All these changes increase risk in the banking and investment sectors. Will Trump also interfere in setting the Fed funds interest rate? And will his tariff wars and adoption of cybercurrency threaten the dollar? These actions would dramatically change American business outlooks.

Ben Franklin found that asking an opponent for a favor turned him into a friend. Businesses can use this “Benjamin Franklin effect” to strengthen customer relationships.

But small business can combat adversity with the “Benjamin Franklin effect.” This works especially well for consumer-facing local enterprises that need remodeling after a storm or new equipment to continue service. A fundraising platform like GoFundMe offers customers and community the opportunity to be good samaritans. The Benjamin Franklin effect says that donating will increase their positive feelings and loyalty toward the business they have helped. It gives them a sense of buy-in and ownership.

REGULATORY CHANGES, INFLUENCE AND TRUST

De-regulation should free businesses from unnecessary rules and expense. Still, businesses may want to work with state or federal lawmakers to define clear, reasonable product and workplace safety regulations. Proven compliance with such regulations reduces the risk of losing liability lawsuits. This is especially true for companies without insider clout and high-powered attorneys.

Small business may find new competition from big business after environmental and safety deregulation. For example, large corporations will gain licenses and leases in up-for-grabs federal parks and lands. Large-scale construction, extractive, or recreational enterprises change the business environment for existing companies and communities without that lobbying clout.

Easing licensing requirements will increase competition. Established, licensed professionals can compete on trust. Unlicensed amateurs’ risks to customers and communities are easy to point out. For example, hair stylists ignorant of proper chemical use or disposal.

Trust is an asset to guard. Scams and fraud will proliferate with de-regulation and cryptocurrency expansion. Consumer protection, safety and environmental enforcement will decrease. This forces customers to rely more on trusted entities.

Young new competitors, on the other hand, may understand social media influence and use it to advantage. Established businesses need to find and invest in social media marketing talent to help them keep up.

Expect pressure to rewrite personnel policies if doing business with federal government or with some states. Project 2025 vehemently demands expunging references to gender, race, or other DEI criteria from HR policies. It recommends only one exception. Companies should have discretion to hire employees based on religion.

WORKFORCE DISRUPTION, AI, PRODUCTIVITY & INNOVATION

Meanwhile, expect workforce disruption and brain drain. Fewer immigrants will be available, skilled and unskilled. Undocumented workers will be deported. Those on student visas will likely exit after graduation, if they face discrimination. Foreign competitors are happy to snap up talent from American universities. Meanwhile, young Americans are turning to universities outside the US in record numbers since the election. Top performers are leaving companies that demand they return-to-office.

Companies in areas with water shortages and excessive heat will find climate refugees fleeing to other states. This will impact hiring and sales in both places.

But many companies can avert workforce shortages with AI. Productivity gains as high as 70% have cut costs and improved service in businesses already. This is especially true in clerical, marketing, customer support, programming, and legal roles.

Franklin was best known for his scientific research in electricity, but he also invented the lightning rod, bifocals, and a dozen other tools and instruments.

Of course, for companies actually in the AI industry, 2025 will be yet another exponential year. Chatbots are only the beginning. Tech leaders will be turning out AI assistants. Assistants will use multiple apps to perform tasks such as planning and booking travel. Gaming companies will let users create and play in their own AI worlds. But the jaw-dropping progress is in biological research. AI is transforming knowledge of life sciences week by week. Labs comprised of autonomous AI agents are being tested, even in such risky fields as nuclear fusion reactions. Procedures for independent validation of such work is just being developed.

But not all jobs will merge with cyberspace. The trades need more workers to keep the physical world operational. Expect federal funds for training and internships to attract more youth to trades. Of course, tradespeople can offload paperwork to AI, too: administration, logistics, and compliance.

Talk of robots replacing most trade professionals in the near term is fantasy. It’s not a software issue. Robots can use chatbot techniques to understand voice commands. The issue is bang-for-the-buck. People are far more versatile. And they don’t have to be manufactured before they show up for work.

Still, automated taxi service is beginning to see adoption in a few large cities. And by the time that manufacturing plants are upgraded and restarted in the US, they may be largely automated.

Job automation plus government layoffs will free up some employees. However, businesses will be competing with large government hires in immigration enforcement and border security. Overall, a workforce shortage is likely in 2025. But a mismatch between needs and skills could increase unemployment.

Gains from AI may more than offset increased wages and training costs. But innovation could be severely threatened if talent and investment move elsewhere.

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